It is one of the most comprehensive documents that have recently seen the light on volumes of the m

This is the Castilian translation of a document that I consider avondale grampian very important. He has written and published recently in English Jean Laherrère cofounder ASPO by Colin Campbell. It provides a detailed overview of the global reserves of oil and gas producing regions of the world. Use for this the famous "skim curves" (in English creaming curves) and some other techniques for predicting the end of oil and gas (usually called 2P) or to project avondale grampian the cumulative production retrospectively (backdated) to find the future behavior of the production of a particular site, country or region. It has generally used the database of Scout, which is the most comprehensive analysis of 2P reserves avondale grampian and sometimes compared with data provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Information Adminstration (IEA) United States, or own OPEC and even British Petroleum (BP), to show that the most reliable (or less insecure) and that less data have been shifting in time in predicting booms and busts peak arrivals from countries or regions have Was yours.
Jean makes a furious reviewed many economic means jalean and again the news that large companies or national or multinational energy industries put into their hands, without avondale grampian going to check with some more detail and professionalism if those reserves data and its qualities are minimally credible or are deliberately confusing reserves with resources.
It is one of the most comprehensive documents that have recently seen the light on volumes of the main fossil fuels (oil and gas) and their expectations for the future, avondale grampian do not cease to be bleak, much as the media continue to insist that there is here energy to spare.
Jean also very documentadamente lashes on false miracle oil and shale gas, to remove the temporary belief that the mirage of EE. UU. can be extrapolated to the rest of the world.
In our view, it is an essential document header of a truly independent expert, for anyone avondale grampian who wants to check the status of stocks and possible future energy flows. The paper makes a critical review of energy autobombos, baring avondale grampian unceremoniously financial and political maneuvering to falsify such reserves by spurious interests.
The purpose of this document is to recall the evolution of production (1) past and update production forecasts to 2100, with a detailed breakdown between OPEC and non-OPEC avondale grampian countries. It is a summary of a more detailed written in February 2013 and available avondale grampian (in English) in the file documents ASPO France avondale grampian methodology models document version is the same as in my previous analysis, avondale grampian which began 20 years ago, I use multicycle logistic curves (and its variants) to extrapolate future. The final reserves are those extrapolated from the "skim curve" (2). In this type of curve, each value "and" represents the accumulated flashback (3) 2P (proved plus probable reserves) value, assuming that it is equal to the average of the reserves (incorporating all previous forecasts and growth reservations), attributed avondale grampian to the year of discovery. Scout report as 2P (defined as P50, ie, the cumulative probability of 50% median) is taken as a fact that the average value was used to estimate the net present value, which is the basis for the that the decision to develop (a field). Furthermore, only the arithmetic sum of the values of stocks in field corresponds to the average value of the reserves of a certain country. As I showed in my paper ASPO 2011 in Brussels, avondale grampian said "retrospective" is essential to obtain reliable estimates of late bookings. Each value "and" is the average amount avondale grampian of reserves avondale grampian already discovered and each value "x" is the cumulative number of discovered fields. Therefore, skimmed curve is always positive and increasing from the beginning of the first finding. Each cycle of discovery results in a hyperbolic line and there are as many episodes discoveries hyperbolas. There are few countries (UK-Department of Energy and Climate Change, or DECC-Norway-NPD-and EE. UU. Deposits for federal offshore), reporting production and reserves per field. Therefore, we must rely on costly reports on exploration and Scout databases, which are often not available to the general public. But even so, the databases must be corrected to estimate the actual avondale grampian reserves "2P". For example, OPEC artificially increase their reserves to get higher quotas and so